Last week, the NC State men’s basketball team lost to UNC 97-73. With just 4 ACC wins, the Wolfpack find themselves in a similar situation as last year - they will have to run the table in the ACC tournament to earn a bid to the NCAA.

After the game, Head Coach Kevin Keatts talked about how NIL has impacted his team. After their Cinderella run last year, they lost some great players to the transfer portal. He talked about how different the players are today and how winning doesn’t really matter anymore.

“Previously, if you went to the Final Four and won the ACC, you could get most of the players you want,” he said. “When you add in NIL, none of that matters because you can flip a team just like that.”

The impact of NIL is exponentially higher for basketball, with five starters and a smaller team, it is much easier to rapidly turn a program around with one or two highly talented players. So why aren’t more teams doing it? Because it is expensive, and it won’t get any cheaper any time soon.

Matt Babcock's recent post on babcockhoops.com talks about the evolution of college basketball and NIL. He points out the need for advanced scouting and recruiting protocols for college programs to be able to evaluate the impact a player can have in a single season.

With a short window to cash in on NIL, players who have breakout seasons will be looking to cash in while they can. Cinderella programs like last year’s NC State team will find out quickly they will pay a very high “success penalty” if they don’t have the cash or the pipeline to keep winning.

College Basketball NIL Valuations

per On3 NIL Valuations

Basketball: Small Programs Best Chance to Compete

Over the past three years we have learned that football and basketball are the drivers of NIL revenue for universities. We also now know that it is virtually impossible to compete with power conference D1 football programs for talent.

Basketball, however, is the place where smaller schools can leverage talented athletes to help build their programs. First, smaller rosters allows smaller schools to pay more for their top players. It also means there are less roster spots available.

Players need to play to land and maintain NIL deals. With only 12-15 roster spots, there is plenty of talent to move downstream to Mid-major D1 or D2 schools. Do you run the risk of losing them after one season? Yes. But if you can show that you have a program that showcases talent you will bring in players who want to perform and move up.

Unlike football, it is much easier to build a brand and image in basketball. The games are indoor, the players are accessible and easily recognizable. For smaller athletic departments with a tight budget, promoting your basketball stars makes great financial sense.

Finally, women’s basketball is rapidly ascending to the top of the list. Although you see more movement at the top programs, women’s basketball is becoming a revenue driver for smaller schools. The expansion of the WNBA and the rise of new leagues has created momentum that will carry the sport well into the next decade. Any school looking to find success in NIL should start with women’s basketball.