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QB ROI: 2025 Dead Money Leaders
Dead money is a term used to define an investment that is not generating the expected return, or has lost money, and will take a long time to recoup the investment. It’s also a term used to describe contract money for professional athletes who are no longer on a team’s roster, but remain a hit to the salary cap.
There are plenty of fans who know that July 1 is known as “Bobby Bonilla Day”. The Mets deferred his contract and agreed to pay him $1.19 million every year from 2011 to 2035. The Mets had a lot of reasons for doing this that didn’t work out very well, but teams will defer salary to give them flexibility to sign other players. The Dodgers deferred the bulk of Shohei Ohtani’s contract, only paying him $2 million per year for the first ten years, then $68 million from 2034 to 2043. Will any of that end up dead money? Only time will tell. But up until now, dead money has been something for GMs and owners of professional sports franchises to deal with. Now, in the revenue-sharing era of college sports, it’s something that may become a big influence on the success of their programs.
This is playing out right now at Texas, where their high-profile, north of $6 million quarterback Arch Manning has underperformed expectations so far this season. Going into this season, most experts speculated Arch would enter the draft in 2026, but with three years of eligibility left, why leave after a down year? Don’t forget Drew Allar, whose lack of performance on the big stage has seen his stock drop, could also opt for sticking around for one last season. On Saturday, a true freshman QB led Pittsburgh to a blowout win over Boston College. He replaced Eli Holstein, an Alabama transfer who was on fire the first seven games of last season, which paid off with a seven-figure payout to keep him at Pitt for 2025.
The real wildcard in all of this is the complete lack of transparency and consistency in the process. There are no standardized revenue-sharing agreements. Each school creates its own distribution plan and can work out deals directly with the athletes, who may or may not have their own representation. Athletes can work with Collectives for NIL deals or directly with businesses. As part of the revenue-sharing agreement, I’m assuming schools are licensing NIL rights of their athletes, but since every school is different, we have no idea the terms.
So what do we know? After the House settlement, a lot of the language changed, but a lot of the nuts and bolts stayed the same. Instead of a “scholarship,” now they receive “athletic financial support/aid.” Regardless of the terminology, it was always an annual award. One thing that is also the same is the fact that schools cannot take any support back once it has been awarded. So for this year, regardless of performance, the compensation cannot change.
But it’s also safe to assume that it will change next year. Because no matter what the NCAA or Athletic Departments try to tell you, this is now a business. It doesn’t make good fiscal sense to continue to pay an athlete millions of dollars who won’t see the playing field.
Schools have to consider ROI when making revenue-sharing decisions. Return on investment will drive which sports and players receive the bulk of the revenue-sharing dollars. Guys like Diego Pavia, who is leading Vanderbilt on a historic run this season, have created revenue opportunities for Vandy that will impact their program for years after he’s done playing.
And don’t forget about Mason Heintschel, that true freshman at Pitt. I’m willing to bet some boosters and fans want to lock him up for next year right now. It’s hard to make that kind of decision after one good game, but that’s the nature of college football today. Can’t wait to see how it works out.
Takeaway for Athletes: What to Look for in Revenue-Sharing Agreements
Performance Rules: Your school may tie your payouts to staying on the roster, staying eligible or other benchmarks. If your benched or injured, your payments might shrink. Ask: Does my contract keep paying me if I’m hurt or redshirted?
Clawbacks: A “clawback” clause lets schools reclaim money if you transfer, break team rules, or fall out of compliance. Ask: What could trigger a payback?
Transfers & Eligibility: Payments usually stop the moment you enter the tranfer portal or lose eligibility. Ask: Do payments happen monthly or at the end of the season?
Academic & Conduct Clauses: Most agreements require “satisfactory academic progress”, but they can be vague. Ask: What GPA or credit load is required to stay in good standing.
Payment Vesting: Schools pay in different ways. If the deal says “upon completion” you could lose everything in you leave early. Ask: When do payments vest, and how much is guaranteed?
NIL Rights: Some contracts may grant your school broad NIL marketing rights. Ask: Can the school use my NIL commercially, or just for team promotions?
Remember, this is no longer scholarship money. This is income. You will owe taxes on every dollar you earn. Read every clause and ask questions and get advice from experts before you sign!
SANIL Shutting Down
Student Athlete NIL, one of the largest NIL collective managers, abruptly shut its doors on October 2nd.
In February, a letter of intent to merge with Blueprint Sports was filed, but the merger never moved forward.
SANIL’s failure illustrates how collectives are struggling to find a role in the new NIL landscape. With the power shifting back to the schools after House, there is growing doubt that collectives are necessary.
There is hope that collectives can become a source of additional funds outside of revenue-sharing, but there is no doubt that the amount of cash flowing through them has shrunk enormously.
Collectives are for-profit businesses, and there are headwinds that will make their profitability shrink going forward. Competition from revenue-sharing has already cut deep. Their reputation as a conduit for pay-to-play and quasi-booster organizations has drawn scrutiny from the CSC, which clearly would prefer they go away.
To survive, collectives will have to show they can bring value to schools by facilitating deals, fundraising, and brand development.
Collectives Give Up on NIL Go
According to Front Office Sports Amanda Christovich, at least two collectives have begun paying players before the submitted deals have been approved by the clearinghouse.
NIL Go has been plagued with problems since it was launched in June. There are reports of millions of dollars in deals have been stuck in limbo for weeks with little to no feedback as to why.
Some athletes are bypassing NIL Go altogether. The FOS article cites an SEC source that out of 70 agreements sent to football players in August, only about 20 had been submitted. Even if the deal is submitted, there is no way for collectives or brands to confirm it.
At the moment, there is little motivation to comply with the CSC and NIL Go process. The CSC is woefully understaffed, and it’s unclear how they would police rule violations. Scouring thousands of athletes’ social media accounts to search for unapproved deals seems impossible, especially for an organization that only has four full-time employees to investigate violations and enforce punishments.
It may be a matter of time before the CSC has to scrap NIL Go, or at least be willing to fund it well enough to function properly.
Build Your Brand
Micro Influencer Mode: Making the Most of a Small Following
You don’t need a huge audience to make NIL work. You just need people who actually care about what you’re doing. Most college athletes aren’t chasing a million followers, and that’s fine. The real power is in the community you already have. Your campus, your hometown, your sport, the people who cheer for you because they know you.
Big brands care about reach, but local sponsors care about trust. A neighborhood coffee shop or a local gym isn’t looking for a superstar. They want someone their customers recognize and relate to. If you’ve got a few hundred people who engage with you, comment on your posts, and support you, that’s value. That’s influence.
The trick is to keep it real. Talk about what your day looks like. Share moments from practice, what you eat, how you stay motivated, or even when things don’t go great. Let people see who you are, not just your highlight reel. When you do partner with a brand, choose one you actually like and tell people why. That kind of honesty builds loyalty, and loyalty lasts a lot longer than one viral post. You don’t have to post every day. Just show up regularly. A couple of good posts a week that actually mean something will go way further than a bunch of random stuff.
And if you’re at a smaller school, you might have more chances than you think. Local businesses want faces that feel familiar. They want the athlete who’s in their community, not just on their screen. So start close to home. Reach out, talk to people, tell your story. You never know who’s ready to work with you until you ask.
At the end of the day, being a micro influencer isn’t about being flashy. It’s about being real, showing up, and letting people in on your world. That’s what makes your brand strong, and that’s what keeps people coming back.
A Final Note
NOTES & QUOTES
OpenDorse is snapping up collectives left without a home after SANIL shutdown
CSC sets up “snitch line” for anonymous reporting of NIL deal violations
Yale signs with Opendorse, despite Ivy League opting out of House settlement
SAFE Act offers NFL style anti-trust protection for TV rights
“You don’t need a big stage to make an impact. You just need to be real enough that people remember you.”
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